Average PC users don't use much broadband data 

Arguably many PC users don't use very much data. An allowance of 1GB/month can often be enough even for heavy websurfing and email use, even including those heavy Windows updates and YouTube views. It's where higher quality video is being downloaded (IPTV) or Peer-to-Peer file sharing (often of videos) that volumes significantly rise. There are reports of substantial increases in network traffic due to the new BBC iPlayer, and suggestions that this is what is keeping fixed network operators awake at night. In the longer term, it can be argued that this isn't really PC data, but will be consumed by the family TV with its larger display and convivial surroundings.

Low Cost Mobile Broadband tariffs extended to Prepaid

3 UK recently announced a prepaid/no-contract version of their 3G data service, which allows the same rates as for postpaid contracts of up to 1GB of data download for 10 pounds a month after topping up. The USB dongle costs a one-off 99 pounds (200 US dollars).

Mobile Broadband Laptops become mainstream

GSM association ran a competition for the best mobile broadband laptop which was won by Dell. This incorporates a full 3G data modem inside the laptop and looks/feels just like a WiFi based system. Other vendors are also offering this type of product Here's a picture of the winning laptop:

WiFi Security Threats in Public Areas 

A recent report highlighted the very serious threat of security risks to using public WiFi services at main transport hubs. Frequently, there are phoney WiFi services visible (including some posing as Free), which can be used to capture credit card details or users passwords/data or both. Over 10% of laptops at the airport were found to be infected with a viral (ad-hoc) Wi-Fi Network, making the users vulnerable to data leakage and identity theft. This compounds many  press reports about the flimsy security that WEP offers.

So we can expect more corporate IT departments to accept the provision of broadband mobile data services to nomadic staff who already have a laptop and mobile phone (and possibly a Blackberry too).

Mobile Broadband vs Fixed Line DSL with WiFi

Some advantages and disadvantages of mobile broadband versus fixed-line DSL service with WiFi hub:

Mobile

• Can be used anywhere. Useful where the PC used out of the house when travelling, visiting friends, in the office/university/pub/motorway services.
• Not tied to one house. Useful for migrant workers or students living at home/university.
• No long contract at one location. Where renting premises and may move home in less than the next 12 months. Prepaid/no contract option available.
• More secure - no need to configure/enable security settings on each laptop and WiFi hub.
• One off cost to buy the broadband modem, but no other setup costs, no disconnection fees or need to pay for voice line.
• Instant availability - can be online in minutes rather than a week or two.

DSL+WiFi

• Higher data speeds. Depends on distance from exchange, ISP and how the service is delivered.
• More widely available. DSL available on almost every phone line including rural areas with no 3G coverage.
• Some operators offer packages with both DSL and use of public WiFi hotspots when out and about

Possible Scenario for Mobile Broadband and Femtocells

So what can we expect to see? A scenario might evolve as shown below.

Mobile Broadband continues to grow in the business sector

• Increasing takeup of mobile data services, initially using USB dongles, especially by the business community. With attractive prices, these provide more convenience than WiFi (quick to turn on/login, works in most cities/suburbs with 2G fallback in rural areas) and much greater security.
• Integration into the laptop, as we saw with WiFi a few years ago, so it becomes just another standard feature
• Operators offering combined voice/data packages with multiple SIMs on the same account.
• Operators offering daily data packages when roaming at a price competing with hotel in-building WiFi services (these are already available).

Mobile Broadband expands into the nomadic domestic user base

• Students and those with more nomadic lifestyles (two homes, houseboat dwellers etc) use these as their main broadband internet connection
• Laptops for the domestic market incorporate 3G Modems, becoming almost a standard feature.

Mobile Broadband competes with fixed DSL for the domestic sector

• Initially more attractive for the lower/less frequent data user (in urban areas)
• Higher data users remain with DSL, especially for IPTV
• (Around this time ADSL2+ gets rolled out)

Mobile Broadband offered with Femtocells for domestic use

• Operators see lower cost if heavy data use offered via Femtocells/DSL
• Domestic users migrate from WiFi across to Mobile Broadband over time

Some arguments against this scenario include:
- Mobile operators don't sell/support laptops. Well they don't have too - they seem successful enough selling USB dongles and SIM cards today.
- Mobile operators compete with DSL providers. They seem to be scrambling to buy and/or resell DSL broadband, such as Vodafone's recent purchases in Spain and Italy.
- Fixed DSL lines offer far greater capacity than mobile. True, hence where femtocells fit in, but regardless of the speed of the line from the house to the local exchange, there is still heavy contention for capacity at the DSLAM and other bottlenecks in the fixed network, which are similar to those contention bottlenecks at the local cellular basestation.

This covers only the use of mobile data for laptops. Future articles will address the wider range of devices which can use mobile broadband data, especially in the home. 

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